Diagnosing the undiagnosable: Indy Eleven's woes continue

 Diagnosing the undiagnosable: Indy Eleven's woes continue

Soccer is the most difficult sport to put a finger on what needs to be changed when issues come about. A striker isn't scoring? Train them to finish their chances, passes not reaching players? Train your midfielders to have higher-quality passes so on and so forth. For Indy Eleven the last two seasons have been never-ending questions of this as the tidal waves of rising and crashing form have crippled them from finding the coveted ideal of "consistency" in their form. 

The most frustrating part, for the club and supporter's alike, is the hope that is generated each time they have secured 3 points over the last two seasons. The "never say die" attitude that narrowly got them into the playoffs (even unrealistically) last season brought joy each time you saw a spectacular save from Trilik or a cut inside by Dambrot. The club, itself, hasn't lacked hope and positivity. But while the lack of hope will be what comes and gets you, it's the lack of execution that can also be your downfall. 

To quote and paraphrase Ted Lasso, Indy Eleven have fallen out of the unlucky tree and hit every branch on the way down. So let's poke the bear and see if we can figure out what truly could be going wrong with Indiana's Team. 

1. Lack of consistency in the squad

Many many many people, as soon as you see a dip of form with this club, are quick to bring up the drastic changes with the squad each season. Since their inception 10 years ago, In the last decade, Indy Eleven have had 4 permanent and at least two interim head coaches, which equates to roughly a new head coach every 2 ish seasons. With the changes come new ideas, new thoughts, and new players those managers, if they've been given the ability to build out the squad, to bring players in. 

For instance, many have brought up that this season's woes have been due to the lack of consistency in the squad this season which begs the question, if you remove budget issues that the club might have season on season, what from last season would you have returned past what was already returned? 

The answer, should be, little to nothing more than what was brought back. When you fail so miserably a head coach has to change players. Another large thing to keep in mind is that this is, even kindly putting it, the second division of a sport that isn't the biggest in the country. 

Not every club can afford to maintain their playing staff season on season and for players like Jared Timmer, the Butler Bulldog who this season is plying his trade in Sacramento - Do you not think that even if the money was the same he wouldn't want to enjoy California summers over Indiana weather? 

Sadly, USL Championship isn't the Premier League, La Liga, or even MLS where the structure of the league can sustain longevity in a roster. Especially for Indiana based teams players coming in and moving on it something that's embedded in the culture of the state's pro teams. 

        2. Tactical issues

It's no secret Lowry has been angling the club to his eventual tactical preference of a 4-4-2 diamond shape, where there are two forwards, a playmaker underneath, and some combination of 2-3 midfielders and a back four. Along with that comes aggressive" play, a press that is hard and suffocating when executed correctly. It's a style that's been a long-standing tradition for Lowry's teams and it's something he might have to come to grips with isn't working.

Pressing has become the norm for most teams internationally and domestically. You do need a special team and a well-built team to execute the aspects of a good press that most managers want. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that Indy Eleven could do what it seems Lowry wants, however, the woeful awareness on the defensive side of the ball has tired both players and supporters alike. It's maybe time to adjust and help protect the goalkeeper more and not hope that if you throw all 11 players forward at a ball you can prevent a goal from being scored. 

It's time for Lowry to come to grips that maybe some true tactical tweaking, pumping the brakes on the aggressive nature of the tactic, and recycle a more realistic approach for a team that has plenty of chance creators, but not enough chance converters.

3. Shot quality

Now I know that in terms of soccer hipster-lingo expected goals are the new hip thing but for Indy Eleven it's a metric that's probably not a bad indicator of their season. 

According to FootyStats.org, Indy Eleven have a xG (Expected Goals) of 1.34 (or basically just shy of a goal/1.5 goals) per match. In comparison, they are conceding 1.42, or roughly that same xG to their opponents. For comparison, Pittsburgh is at the top conceding less than a goal (xG) wise per match. This information plants Indy Eleven right where they are, the middle of the entire league and towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference. 

Now I've thrown a lot of numbers at you just now, and if you are confused, that's okay so am I most of the time (not just with soccer-related things) but it basically lines up to that Indy Eleven are where they should be statistically. They aren't overplaying nor are they underplaying their xG and they aren't overly allowing nor underly (is that a word) allowing goals against. Translation? Indy Eleven are an average team with an above-average midfield and a below-average attack. 

3A. How do you fix that? 

It's a burning question for managers, head coaches, and players a like. How do you score goals in soccer? No one really knows the answer - I think for Indy Eleven their success has come from set pieces and "stop ball" plays. For a team that truly doesn't have many open play goals a focus on refining your set pieces and maybe putting a taller player, like a Diz Pe, on a corner instead of Solo would be a start. 

Truthfully, I think Indy Eleven are closer than many would give them credit for. Yes, it is rough, and yes, I do usually call it an early night on those west coast trip but no team can have bad luck and as bad of a run as they did last season. Truthfully, no one is asking Indy Eleven to make a run for the title... but if they can turn their form towards looking like a mid table playoff club instead of looking like they will trip into a playoff place... I think that would be enough to move them forward.